First, I don't want to diminish the specifics about what is being said regarding the outrage over Google's recent changes to YouTube because there is validity among some of the complaints. That is not what this is about. I'm just going to explain why none of it matters.
And second, I'm not suggesting I know how this all plays out, but I do know that most people have zero perspective on the matter. That's not meant as an insult to anyone, but if you disagree then you better hear me out.To leave a comment on a YouTube video we now have to have a G+ account, and plenty of people obviously don't like this. There's been petitions protesting the change, hundreds of thousands of comments nearly everywhere denouncing Google, and numerous articles reporting the anti Google venom that seems to have taken hold.
It sure seems like YouTube is on the verge of crumbling, but that's not even close to reality. The the angry dissenters aren't even blip on Google's radar screen.
Let's look at the numbers. We've heard about the petitions, something like 80,000 people joining online (and probably bigger by now). There's well over six-hundred thousand angry comments on the recently viral YouTube video denouncing the changes by song. No doubt there are lots of angry people.
But here is the reality. On a site with maybe a billion+ users, these numbers are so small by comparison they would not be worth even mentioning if they didn't seem to represent to majority. And they don't, and if you think they do you're being fooled.
I'll explain, but let's take a quick step back for moment. This type of outrage is hardly new. When Facebook pushed Timeline on everyone there was a huge backlash, but the result was far less action than was expected. A lot of people had legitimate dislike for the changes, some even closed down their accounts, but most people just adapted and got over it. No one even is complaining anymore.
The reason so little action typically follows this type of outrage is because the vocal dissenters as a group are most not as sizable as they appear. The person who seeks petitions and venues where they can post an angry comment is not a representation of the average user. There is a huge misconception that what we read from users commenting online somehow equates with the view of the entire marketplace. Not so.
Think about it, if we love a new change how likely are we to be overly vocal about it online? But when a change occurs that we find infuriating, the desire to vent can often have us seeking out venues to write something. That is, if we are the type of person that comments online in the first place, something most people in the general public don't actively do.
Dissenters always appear more frequently. It's easy to think that's what everyone thinks. But even the comments we read online don't necessarily represent the majority view among those that do actively comment for this very reason. That should at least leave any objective mind wondering if all this blow back we are reading about is as meaningful as we are led to believe.
If that isn't convincing enough, consider the average user of YouTube who isn't even aware these changes are being made (and/or doesn't care). Lost among all this backlash is the fact that a huge portion of visitors to YouTube are people merely clicking links who never even sign in to the site, much less bother with the comments.
Avid users of YouTube who spend considerable time among the comments may not be ready to face up to this. But if we step away from our devices and ask around, it turns out only a small percentage of people bother with the comments at all. Sure, for some they are the epitome of YouTube, but relative to its billion+ users? Sorry, that just isn't true, and Google knows this.
Google gets more relevant feedback from knowing what everyone is searching for and what everyone is clicking than any company in the world. The trillions of searches and actions they get feedback on represent what users are ACTUALLY doing. We could poll 100% of the YouTube user base and it still wound't be worth a dime compared to the data Google received. The collection of people who are really angry about these changes (again, perhaps legitimately so) just don't represent enough of an impact to matter. Its harsh, no doubt, but its the truth.
Change is always going to piss off someone when you have a billion people to please. I don't know that most people can even comprehend the magnitude of what a billion people represents. If even a million angry users are planning on never using YouTube again that merely represents 1 out of every 1000 users. That is 999 out of 1000 users retained. This is exactly how Google is looking at it.
I'm not suggesting there is no chance this backfires on Google, but if I had to guess I'd bet that this will blow over the same way Timeline did with Facebook. In a year from now most people won't even remember what the old commenting system looked like.
I don't want to minimize the complaints because as I said at the start I think many of them are quite valid. There are plenty of rational people raising reasonable objections. But plenty of objection is also coming from the subset of people who have essentially ruined YouTube comments with a continuous barrage of racist, hateful, and inflammatory comments. If this is the type of person who will ultimately leave YouTube behind, I say good riddance.
